You don’t approach baseball betting by guessing or just looking at starting pitchers. Not if you want long-term profit. Bettors look at the starting pitchers first. Successful handicappers look at many betting strategies every day. I had a clean two-game sweep on Wednesday using three different basic betting strategies: motivation, trades, injured pitchers off the DL, and past performances. Let’s take a deeper look.
There are teams that are currently involved in pennant racing as teams enter the final stretch of the season, and many teams are out. Teams like Minnesota and the Dodgers have been hot the past month, riding winning streaks that got them back into the playoff race. Winning is fun for bettors, of course, and fun for professional athletes. Would you rather show up than work on a winning team that could make it to the postseason? Or one that is out of it? Teams outside of it are more likely to go through the motions, without motivation.
Look what Arizona did this week, trading Shawn Green to the Mets. He’s a huge talent, but expensive, so the D-Backs sent his contract to New York. That gives the appearance that the organization might be packing up.
In my Wednesday analysis, I noted: “Diamondback’s aspirations are rapid Diamondback sponsors. “
The Giants outplayed the D-Backs, going 6 losses in 7 games, and a win for me and my clients. I remember a few weeks ago Red Sox players were upset that the front office made no move at the trade deadline to increase the team’s chances. This didn’t sit well with some veteran players who only have a few years left to play and compete for another title, such as Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek. Not making a trade can hurt a team, just as dumping a player can be a sign that the front office might be thinking about next year.
Another important betting angle is to go against pitchers who are making their first start after coming off the disabled list. Throwing effectively requires practice and timing. Pitchers coming off the disabled list often lack that. That same night I bet against Toronto, noting: “We found Toronto and Gustavo Chacin in that situation. Chacin hasn’t pitched since June 9 when he lasted just 3 innings against the Tigers. He hasn’t faced a major league hit in 10 weeks and will surely be rusty in his return.” It was like Oakland broke, 6-0. Chacin didn’t make it out of the second inning, allowing 6 hits, 3 walks, and 5 runs!
On both plays, the teams I rooted for were on a roll. Oakland had won 3 of Esteban Loaiza’s last 4 and 6 of his last 9 starts. He had a solid 3.88 career ERA against the Blue Jays and has beaten them in 3 of his last 4 starts. As for the Giants against Arizona, the Giants had won 7 of their last 9 and responded with Jason Schmidt. He and his teammates have beaten Arizona an incredible 15 times in a row! He has a 3.19 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. San Francisco has dominated this series, winning 34 of 52 games, including 17 of 24 at home. There are many factors to use when looking at baseball games, one just has to learn what to look for and how to apply it.